Rapid qualitative study commissioned by the German Federal Foreign Office on the drivers of Afghan migration to Germany and Europe during 2014–2016. ARC conducted 195 structured interviews across four cities in North Afghanistan (Sheberghan, Mazar-e Sharif, Pul-i Khumri, Taloqan), covering push, pull and enabling factors, supplemented by stakeholder interviews with government representatives and civil society. Field research was implemented via AHRRAO.

Key finding: The dramatic reduction of smuggling costs — due to the consolidation of smuggler networks — was identified as a major, previously underestimated driver of the 2014–2016 migration surge, alongside the well-documented push factors of insecurity and economic deterioration.

Results: Migration report (English and Dari); executive summary; presentation to AA stakeholders.